The government appears set to come good on its promise to tackle debt, which has spiralled in recent years and dominated the state's politics.
On Thursday morning, ahead of the budget's full release, Mr Abetz said Tasmania was forecasting a $193 million surplus in 2027/28, with net debt to peak the year after.
A year earlier, the picture of deficit and debt - which hit $5 billion in 2025 and was forecast to double by 2029 - was so alarming, the parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
Having won a snap election off the back of that vote, Mr Rockliff's government has regrouped with a new treasurer at the wheel, who warned of a "tough budget" ahead.
"There will be short-term pain but at the end of the forward estimates we'll have a balanced budget," Mr Abetz told reporters on Wednesday.
"That is what we were sent to an election for, if I recall, less than 12 months ago. Labor and the Greens, in particular, were saying we need to fix the budget."
Economic research institute e61 considers Tasmania as "on the fiscal precipice", requiring both tax increases and savings booked from current spending levels.
The previous year's deficit, at $1.1 billion, alarmed economists given total revenue was $9.5 billion.
"Remedial action will have to be taken at some point, one way or another," e61 chief executive Michael Brennan said.
"The hope is that it starts in earnest on Thursday."
Announcements in May suggested a government heeding that advice.
Usually, ministers spend the weeks before a budget making "pre-announcements" of what's in the otherwise secretive books, hoping the public will be wowed by its spending plans.
This year, there have been precious few "good news" stories.
A $10 million Creative Industries fund, a $20,000 first home owner grant and a $2000 rebate for women undergoing IVF treatment are among the few measures to be spruiked by the government - suggesting the budget will not be a spend-a-thon.
The government is also cutting its public sector by 1800 jobs over six years.
Other pre-budget announcements have been criticised as creative accounting that masks spending downgrades to be confirmed on Thursday.
The Labor opposition believes the announcement of $777 million in ambulance funding over four years is actually a cut, given $186 million was spent on the system in the most recent year.
Mr Rockliff has also used the week to walk back his key election promise to create a state-owned insurance company, instead creating a regulatory authority.
The most significant announcement landed on Friday: a $506 million "equity injection" to TT-Line, the operators of the crucial Spirit of Tasmania ferry service.
In other words, a fresh half-billion dollar bailout to the state-owned company that has overseen cost and timeline blowouts on replacement ferries and port infrastructure.
It's cost overruns like these that have led Tasmania, net debt free as recently as 2019, to borrow more per person than any state bar Victoria.
Mr Brennan said it was unfortunate debt was being racked up at the same time as global events were making it more costly to borrow.
"The now familiar story of rising debt, combined with borrowings being refinanced at higher interest rates (see Victoria)," he said.
"This leaves Tasmania having to face its long-term structural economic challenges."
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