The final Radio NZ-Reid Research poll before the election had National on 24.8 per cent, which would be its second worst vote since foundation 90 years ago.
Should that manifest, key figures including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop, Defence Minister Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee are likely to miss re-election.
The poll has Labour on 30.6 per cent and gives the left bloc an edge over the right, at odds with other recent polls from TVNZ, The Post and the Taxpayers Union.
"It's really out of whack," Ms Willis told journalists in Auckland on Thursday.
What is consistent among almost every poll since July is the rise of Opportunity, a teal-styled centrist party, which is on track to play the role of kingmaker.
Qiulae Wong's party was on 7.2 per cent, clear of the threshold of five per cent to gain representation, and with it the balance of power.
While Opportunity has pledged it can work with either side of politics, both National and NZ First have ruled out working with them in government.
Unless they break their word, that would effectively produce a government from the left.
In the Radio NZ poll, the Greens were on 14.8 per cent, ACT was on 10.1 per cent, NZ First 9.9 per cent and the Maori Party 1.9 per cent.
While National has dismissed the figures, a four-poll average has National on 27.5 per cent and staring down the barrel of major losses among its 48-strong partyroom.
Ms Willis is especially vulnerable as she is not contesting an electorate seat, meaning she is reliant on a strong party vote to win.
Mr Bishop, in a tight race to hold his Wellington-based seat of Hutt South, received a rare endorsement from a rival party this week, with NZ First leader Winston Peters offering his backing.
In a public meeting in the area, Mr Peters said Mr Bishop was a "cut above" his colleagues and a "serious contributor" in cabinet.
"That is fantastic to see," Ms Willis said.
With hundreds of thousands of votes already cast, National's campaign is pivoting towards warning Kiwis about Greens policies which might be enacted in a coalition.
That includes a wealth tax, hitting the wealthiest 0.3 per cent of Kiwis, and a new top tax rate of 45 per cent, in exchange for introducing a tax-free threshold which it says will give a tax cut to 96 per cent.
While Labour has ruled it out, Greens co-leader Chloe Swarbrick told Newstalk ZB on Thursday it is her top priority.
Ms Willis said the Greens would seek to enact it in coalition negotiations.
"We face a very stark choice," she said.
"Between parties on the left who want to dial up wasteful spending, borrowing and tax and our National party who wants to keep a steady economic course."
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