While rainfall is expected to be below average in these regions, there is still a high chance of some rain with the typical winter rainfall across southern areas being 100 to 400mm around the coast and 25 to 100mm inland.
Temperatures this winter are likely to be above average across most of Australia. This follows a warmer-than-average autumn.
Despite the warmer-than-average forecast, cold snaps bringing low temperatures, frost or snow are still possible during winter.
Long-range forecasts provide an overall seasonal trend but do not predict short-term weather systems.
The bureau’s long-range forecast is updated fortnightly and considers a range of models and influences such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
While the ENSO is currently neutral, all models indicate El Niño is likely to develop this winter.
El Niño typically influences rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia from winter into early summer, roughly June to December, with this influence typically peaking during the spring months.
While historical experience of El Niño events can create an expectation that these events will be the same each time they occur, no two El Niño events are the same.
The bureau says winter rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Victoria.
However, there's no strong signal for some parts of the state's south-east where there are near equal chances of rainfall being above, below or close to average.
Typical winter rainfall in recent decades ranges between 100 and 300mm throughout much of Victoria, while the state's north-west has 50 to 100mm and parts of the far south and alpine areas have up to 600mm.
Above-average temperatures are very likely across Victoria both in the day and overnight.
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