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Taiwan crisis could happen without Australia noticing

Oct 31, 2025

Australian navel vessels are seen at Garden Island in Sydney — Australia isn't equipped to provide an effective response to a crisis over Taiwan, a report says. -AAP Image

Without clearer communication and listening to the Taiwanese community at home, Australia might only recognise a crisis with China once it is too late.

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An analysis of Australia's preparedness and messaging on Taiwan has warned the country is not equipped to provide an effective response should tensions escalate in the region.

Balancing our economic ties with China while supporting the status quo of Taiwan as an independent nation is one of the key security challenges in our region.

But a report released on Friday from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says government departments are not collaborating well enough with businesses and the community to prepare for a crisis.

Should China decide to escalate conflict, there is a real risk Australia might not even realise the environment had shifted.

"Beijing works very hard to operate in this ambiguous grey zone where it takes actions just below the threshold of what might be clearly identified as a crisis," report lead author Mark Harrison told AAP.

"That makes it very hard for our system to identify a crisis."

Listening to the Taiwanese diaspora in Australia about their concerns is also crucial to increasing public awareness of the issues in Northeast Asia.

Many people of Taiwanese background report being mistaken as Chinese despite having a wealth of knowledge on the importance of managing relationships with China.

"They are not particularly heard and yet they are by far the best-informed community in Australia," Dr Harrison said.

"They have a huge contribution to make to the nation ... so we recommended much stronger support for that community."

Australia's government has consistently reaffirmed its desire to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.

"We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan and its status, that's a longstanding, bipartisan position that Australia has had," Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in South Korea on Thursday.

Any escalation in rhetoric by Mr Albanese would alarm China, so more subtle messaging to local communities is the best strategy for preparing the country for tension, Dr Harrison said.

"If it isn't the prime minister saying something, there are ... a range of proxies the government have through which they can communicate messages."