Attackers entered a two-storey house in south-west Sydney's quiet Glen Alpine neighbourhood, near Campbelltown, about 3.40am on Tuesday.
There, they shot dead the 23-year-old student in his bed.
The offenders remained on the run on Tuesday afternoon, as an underworld identity suggested attackers "popped the wrong person" on social media.
Forensic police continued to scour the scene, carefully inspecting the home's front door.
A neighbour told AAP many in the street kept to themselves, but he and others woke up to the sirens.
"We saw police walking around with torches and thought it must be serious," the man, who did not want to be named, said.
"It's just horrible what happened."
Detectives were open to the possibility the killers were mistaken in their target, Campbelltown Acting Superintendent Gretchen Atkins confirmed.
There were believed to be multiple offenders, she said.
The victim was not known to police for anything more than a traffic offence and his family was co-operating, she said.
Sydney has had several horrific mistaken-identity criminal incidents in recent times.
But Act Supt Atkins said she was reassuring the public the attack was targeted and not a random home invasion.
NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane said Sydney's gangland activity was out of control.
"Fifty shootings this year alone. It's terrifying. This is Sydney, not Colombia," she said.
"What is this government doing ... we have seen too much gun violence on our streets."
Premier Chris Minns, who is in India, argued his government had thrown resources at police and increased sentences.
"That won't stop a violent crime occurring, but I want the public to know we are throwing an enormous amount of resources at this," he said.
An exiled, alleged co-founder of criminal network Coconut Cartel posted to Instagram a little more than an hour after the shooting.
''Popped the wrong person. Didn't even get the right house,'' Iziah Utai wrote.
On Saturday, Utai posted a video dancing with a gun in the aftermath of the non-fatal shooting of Emad Alameddine.
Mr Alameddine was a relative of alleged crime figure Bilal Alameddine and was shot in South Granville on Saturday evening.
The Alameddine network, a notorious crime family, and the Coconut Cartel, an emerging crime-for-hire network, have allegedly become embroiled in a feud, spilling into shootings across Sydney in recent months.
Act Supt Atkins said she was aware of the social media posts and suggested everything was under consideration.
She urged the local community to assist police.
''Any small piece of information is what [may be the] break that we're actually looking for,'' she said.
"At this point in time we don't have that information."
A report into the young man's death will be prepared for the coroner.
In February, 85-year-old grandfather Chris Baghsarian was allegedly kidnapped and murdered by people who had the wrong target.
Eleven people have been charged in relation to the incident.
In May 2025, innocent Condell Park plumber John Versace was executed in his driveway in what police believe was a case of mistaken identity.